How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in the president's attempts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.